Two types of demographic dividend may boost per capita economic growth 42 0 2 4 6 810 0 10 20 30 19602014 change in the share of the workingage population, 19602014 note. There is little evidence that the pace of demographic shifts in the united nations economic and social commission for asia and the pacific escap region4 will slow down. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging. Under certain conditions moderate population growth can be beneficial. Population aging could serve as a drag on economic growth as the eff ective number of workers declines relative to the eff ective number of consumers. Abstract trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the.
A simulation of the effect of asia s population aging and economic growth on the regions fiscal sustainability indicate that overall, demographic change will adversely affect asia s fiscal health. Impact of demographic transition on economic growth of pakistan. The rate of growth of the support ratiothe first demographic dividendvaries in its timing and magnitude in each economy depending on the speed and magnitude of changes in population age structure. Whether you interpret 35 as young or old depends on the context, which brings me to my topic today. The chapter discusses implications of rapid population aging across most of asia demographic tax for economic growth, the labor.
Population aging and economic growth in china springerlink. Still, it may be the case that such growth is not sustainable, is discounting the future eating the capital of mother earth second, in the longrun, population growth and economic growth. Workshop on demographic transition and economic growth in asia held 1920 may 2011 in seoul, and the adb forum on demographic transition and economic growth in asia held 22 july 2011 in manila, for their many useful comments. For comparing the economic growth of different countries gdp is measured in purchasing power parity ppp terms. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in asia. Expressed as percentage changes, economic growth is equal to population growth plus growth in per capita gdp. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, cid working papers 15a, center for international development at harvard university. During this period, the decline in the workingage population is likely to directly depress the economic growth rate. Pdf identifying factors that influence the pace of national economic growth is a timeworn activity of economists. The economic consequences of demographic change in east. Authors personal copy demographic change and economic growth in sweden. Demographic change and economic growth in the brics.
Download paper view population tables in xls format. But throughout the region demographic change continues. What have we learned from the east asia experience. The relationship between demographic change and economic growth in the eu research report 32 alexia prskawetz, thomas fent, werner barthel vienna institute of demography, austrian academy of sciences jesus crespocuaresma department of economics, university of innsbruck thomas lindh, bo malmberg, max halvarsson. Movement of death and birth rates in a society, from a situation where both are high in the pretransition stage to one where both are low in the posttransition stage. A few countries in the tropics have made significant breakthroughs in economic growth in the past twentyfive years, in almost all cases. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging asia. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, pgda working papers 4108, program on the global demography of aging. It is also increasingly recognized that other asian economies are soon about to follow japans path. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in east asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in southeast and south asia. Mellon center for curricular and faculty development, the office of the provost and the office of the president. The bidirectional causality in south east asia abstract this study has demonstrated new evidence sustaining the idea that variation in demographic factors is an important determinant of growth in per capita income. Demographic change and economic growth in asia harvard. Demographic and economic material factors in the mena region.
Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india 2019. By shedding light on key population statistics, the study first provides an overview of the strong population growth and migration patterns in the region. The conclusion that rapid population growth has slowed development is by no means straightforward or clearcut see box 5. Demographic change and economic growth in asia ideasrepec. In this study, we have selected brazil, russia, india, china and south africa brics and the european union to see this relationship between two variables economic growth and demographic dividend using fixed effect model covering a period of 19902015. Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in korea. Thanks are also due jisoo kim for her excellent research assistance. Population trends in asia and the pacific united nations escap.
Within the next decade, chinas labour force will begin to contract, while that of india will expand faster than its population. Bloom, david canning and jaypee sevilla nber working paper no. African countries united nations economic commission for. Investment and government spending are likely to offset substantial weakness in trade. An increase in this share can also come about by a disproportionate increase in the survival of. A rising workingage population share is positively correlated with gdp per capita growth. Correlation between aging and growth in gdp per capita in constant dollars. Finlay harvard school of public health september 2008 draft.
I increases or e declines in history, the first case is more important to understand the impressive population growth demographic transition components of population growth. The report examines the trends and levels of key demographic indicators for african countries, including population size, growth rate, distribu. Real gdp growth in southeast asia, china and india annual percentage change. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the east asian growth premium. The global population increased nearly fourfold, growing from 1. The per capita gdp growth and productivity has been studied by marattin and salotti 2009. The miracle occurred in part because east asias demographic transition. These conclusions are important for the theoretical understanding of the economic growth and the demographic transition processes, and our results confirm the theory in kalemliozcan 2002 on the. The series longevity underscores the important contributions it has made over the years to the public discourse on monetary economics and policy.
Using ols regressions, he found that demographic change had no impact on economic growth stability in latin america and caribbean. Following the solow economic growth model, the result identifies a positive and significant effect of export and technology on the economic growth of the emerging asian economies. Economic growth and the demographic transition david e. We explore how demographic changes in the asia and pacific region are likely. Economic growth is measured by changes in a countrys gross domestic product gdp which can be decomposed into its population and economic elements by writing it as population times per capita gdp. As chapter 4 showed, in europe, japan, and north america economic growth has been accompanied by moderate population growth, which. Demographic change and economic growth in asia cid working paper no. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of workingage population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact. More than half of the worlds population lives in the asia pacific region. Demographic changes in asia and japans economic and. Demographic change, human resources constraints and economic growth april 2015 i 2 human resources constraints will affect economic growth in the eu, the us, china and other global players. Asia that accounts for some 60 percent of the world total population has been particularly affected.
Population dynamics and economic growth in subsaharan. In this paper, we reexamine the role of the demographic transition in explaining crosscountry differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on east asia. In most of the economic literature economic growth of a country is measured by growth of gross national product gdp per capita of that country taken as a proxy of standard of living. In this new stage, a country faces a growing number of elderly retirees. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross. Demographic change, human resources constraints and economic. Bloom and canning, w10817 global demographic change.
The literature shows the mixed results regarding the role of demographic transition. Demographic change and fiscal sustainability in asia asian. Bloom and canning 2005 studied global economic change and its economic significance. However, migration is not demographically determined by rapid population growth alone. An aging population coupled with a declining birthrate points to a decline in economic growth. Population, wealth, and economic growth in the asia and pacific. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in south asia. Taiwans saving, growth, and demographic structure conform to the broad patterns of east asia.
The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia. Demographic determinants of economic growth in brics and. Syud amer ahmed, pinyi chen, marcio cruz and bryce quillin. Pdf the publication provides an economic outlook for the region, subregions and countries in asia. This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in asia during 196590. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world, including east asia, latin.
Demographic change, human resources constraints and. The potential for a demographic dividend remains strong in many countries in the region, but. Demographics and development in the 21st century initiative technical background paper how demographic change affects development by rachel nugent and barbara seligman the center for global development is an independent, nonprofit policy research organization that is. Development in an era of demographic change profound changes in global demography are expected to a. High rates of economic growth have accompa nied an increase in private saving rates from s percent of disposable in come irl 1950 to around 25 percent in the early 1990s. Demographics and development in the 21st century initiative. In this paper, we examine the robustness of demographic factors in explaining economic growth throughout asia, with particular attention to east asia. An invertedu shape relationship article in economics letters 923. Special attention is paid to population health and age structure as missing factors in a unified explanation of such disparate phenomena as east asia s economic miracle and subsaharan africas economic debacle. Since 1990, east asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. Demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom. The relationship between demographic change and economic. Growth, demographic structure, and national saving in taiwan. Change in the ratio of old to young workers from 1990 to 2015 all countries except oecd oecd countries figure 2.
We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in southeast and. Geography, demography, and economic growth in africa. As the growth rate of the workingage population lags that of the total population, the total dependency ratio rises. East asia s experience is also broadly consistent with the view that population matters bloom and williamson 1998.
As the asiapacific region is facing rapid demographic change, it is essential that population dynamics are taken into account in the formulation of development policies. We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth. Numerous researchers expounded and magnified the impact of demographic transition on economic growth by using time series as well as cross sectional data. The potential for a demographic dividend remains strong in many countries in the region, but requires that appropriate measures are put in place. Economic growth itself will be correlated to the age structure of the population. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital returns and an increasing share of global fdi to india. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. In most not all of these regions the inescapable decline of workingage population will impose restrictions on future employment and economic growth.
Transition is the interval between these two stages during which the population increases oftentimes rapidly, as. The asia pacifics population has tripled in the past 65 years, and is expected to reach 4. Demographic variables have a significant influence on economic growth, because the demographic transition is related to the sustainability of economic growth and the change of population. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region. Malaney introduction east asia s near tripling of real income per capita during the last 30 years is one of the. In 20, the total population of the asiapacific region stood at 4.
Population aging and economic growth in asia 65 in fertility that reduces the number of youth, and thus with no change in the size of the elderly population, the elderly share increases. Demographic change and economic growth in asia econpapers. Demographic and economic material factors in the mena. Andrew mason1 the twentieth century was a period of unprecedented demographic change. Demographic change, human capital, and economic growth in korea, cama working papers 201939, centre for applied macroeconomic analysis, crawford school of public policy, the australian national university. The world population is growing more slowly and aging at unprecedented speed. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia s strong economic growth performance a miracle. This report provides an overview of demographic and economic material factors and emerging trends in the mena region. In east asia, for example, the age transition has been very rapid, and the swings in age structure have been very large.
Demographic changes in asia especially changes in the growth rate, age structure, and skill profile of the workforceage groups will have a significant impact on international migration to and from the region. These findings confirm that rapid economic growth in asia can be attributed to the favorable demographic changes that took place there. As we are all aware, japan is a society with a rapidlyaging population caused mainly by a low birth rate. The paper tests the impact of demographic change on chinas economic growth by using 19832008 provincial panel data. Sep 30, 2018 an aging population coupled with a declining birthrate points to a decline in economic growth. The east asian countries adopted strong family planning programs, fertility rates dropped rapidly, population growth slowed and economic development accelerated. Demographic change and economic growth in asia david e. Emerging demographic trends in asia and the pacific. Demographic change and economic growth with focus on the brics philip schellekens lead economist, dec prospects group with thanks to. The relationship between chinas population structure. As the asia pacific region is facing rapid demographic change, it is essential that population dynamics are taken into account in the formulation of development policies.
1124 749 1609 1306 393 784 914 1442 337 941 349 188 682 763 523 971 1447 443 252 595 513 999 847 886 867 609 944 206 987 410 259 657 234 872 185 592 546 863 123 97 1110 274 1049 1249 847 922